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Welcome to your Champion League Match Day email - covering all
markets in tonight's Live TV games. PLUS, the very best stats from
the rest of the matches AND the Top Trends from ALL teams.
I'll be highlighting the Stats Picks from tonight's matches... Then
looking at the bookmaker's Best Offers... before giving you MY
Recommended Bets... using the following rating system:
| £££ |
- Nailed-on. An outstanding chance, according to the stats. |
| ££ |
- Fancied. Supported strongly by the stats. |
| £ |
- Worth a Punt. Statistical support at appealing odds |
First up it's tonight's big game between last season's finalists in
the Camp Nou...
Barcelona v Manchester United
Note: All stats are based on last season's data.
Goals
| Key stats: |
Barcelona |
v |
Man Utd |
| Goals For |
3.0 |
|
1.3 |
| Goals Against |
0.7 |
|
0.0 |
| Goals Total per match |
3.7 |
|
1.3 |
| |
|
|
|
| Under 2.5 Goals |
50% |
|
50% |
| |
|
|
|
| Time of First Goal |
32 mins |
|
52 mins |
Stats Picks: No clear stats on whether this game will go Under or
Over 2.5 Goals. Both teams' Time of First Goal stats point towards
the First Goal coming After 30th Minute, but these two have met 4
times in the last 4 seasons and the First Goal times in those games
were (0-0), 14, 10 and 27.
Stats Picks:
Corners
| Key stats: |
Barcelona |
v |
Man Utd |
| Corners For |
5.0 |
|
5.0 |
| Corners Against |
1.7 |
|
4.2 |
| Corners Total per match |
6.4 |
|
9.2 |
| |
|
|
|
| Under 10.5 Corners |
100% |
|
67% |
| |
|
|
|
| Average Margin |
+3.3 |
|
+0.8 |
Stats Picks: Under 11 Corners looks the best bet in tonight's game.
Both teams' total averages are below the bookies usual 11 corner
marker. Both teams are averaging 5.0 corners for per game but
Barcelona are limiting their opponents to just 1.7 corners per game.
So we can expect the home side to get the Most Corners.
Stats Picks:
- Under 11 Corners
- Barcelona Most Corners
- Barcelona -1 Corner Handicap
Cards and Booking Points
| Key stats: |
Barcelona |
v |
Man Utd |
| Cards For |
0.5 |
|
0.5 |
| Cards Against |
3.0 |
|
1.7 |
| Cards Total per match |
3.5 |
|
2.2 |
| |
|
|
|
| Under 3.5 Cards |
50% |
|
83% |
| |
|
|
|
| First Card For |
0% |
|
0% |
| |
|
|
|
| Booking Points For |
5.0 |
|
5.0 |
| Booking Points Against |
30.8 |
|
16.7 |
| BP Total per match |
35.8 |
|
21.7 |
| |
|
|
|
| Under 35.5 Booking Points |
50% |
|
83% |
Stats Picks: Going Under 3.5 Cards looks the best option - both
teams are averaging just 0.5 cards for per game. Usually each
other's opponents get the most cards/ booking points but with both
teams only get just 1 card per game who's going to get the most
look's to tight to call.
Stats Picks:
We've seen what the stats say now let's take a look at what the
bookies are offering on tonight's game...
Tonight's recommendations...
Corners
| Stats Picks |
Best Offer |
Bet Advice |
| Under 11 Corners |
Under 10.5 @ 5/6 Stan James |
££ |
| |
|
|
| Barcelona Most Corners |
1/5 @ William Hill |
No Bet |
| |
|
|
| Barcelona -1 Corner Handicap |
3/10 @ William Hill |
No Bet |
Matt's Picks: Both teams' stats indicate a low corner total tonight,
so take the 5/6 on offer at Stan James. Barcelona look likely to win
Most Corners and cover (-1) Handicap, but odds of 1/5 and 3/10 are
not tempting.
Cards and Booking Points
| Stats Picks |
Best Offer |
Bet Advice |
| Under 3.5 Cards |
4/5 @ Bet365 |
££ |
Matt's Picks: With both teams averaging under 1 card per game, Under
3.5 Cards looks a cracking bet.
Standout Stats - the best of the rest...
Here are the best stats from the rest of tonight's Champions League
games...
Lyon v Bayern Munich
| |
Lyon |
v |
Bayern Munich |
| Over 3.5 Cards |
75% (3/4) |
|
100% (4/4) |
| Cards Total per match |
4.5 |
|
5.3 |
Stats Picks: Expect Cards in tonight's game. Both teams' are
averaging way over the bookies standard 3.5 Card marker. Last season
3 of Lyon's 4 home games and all 4 of Bayern's away games went Over
4.5 Cards as well.
| Stats Picks |
Best Offer |
Bet Advice |
| Over 3.5 Cards |
Over 4.5 @ 10/11 Bet365 |
££ |
Matt's Picks: Bet365 have set their marker at 4.5 and with both
teams' stats from last season I'm happy to take the 10/11 on offer.
Arsenal v Inter Milan
| |
Arsenal |
v |
Inter Milan |
| Over 2.5 Goals |
100% (4/4) |
|
100% (5/5) |
| Goals Total per match |
4.8 |
|
3.8 |
Stats Picks: Goals, Goals, Goals. Arsenal's home games produced the
following totals last season 6, 6, 4 and 3. Inter's away games
produced totals of 4, 4, 3, 5 and 3.
Now for the bookies' markets...
| Stats Picks |
Best Offer |
Bet Advice |
| Over 2.5 Goals |
8/11 in general |
££ |
Matt's Picks: Take the 8/11 on tonight's game going Over 2.5 Goals.
Real Madrid v Ajax
| |
Real Madrid |
v |
Ajax |
| Goals For |
2.5 |
|
1.0 |
| Goals Against |
0.3 |
|
1.3 |
| Win % |
83% (5/6) |
|
33% (1/3) |
Stats Picks: Real Madrid won 5 of their 6 games last season without
conceding a goal. These two played each other in last season's group
stages with Real winning 2-0 at home and 4-0 away.
Stats Picks |
Best Offer |
Bet Advice |
Real Madrid to win |
4/11 in general |
£££ |
|
|
|
Real Madrid to Win To Nil |
6/4 @ Paddy Power |
£ |
Matt's Picks: 4/11 is short but Real Madrid look nailed-on to beat
Ajax tonight. And with Real's fantastic defensive record at home Win
To Nil also looks good value @ 6/4.
Recommended Bets...
Here is a summary of my picks for tonight's games - plus you can
see the rating I've given for each bet as well...
CL Rating System:
| £££ |
- Nailed-on. |
| ££ |
- Fancied. |
| £ |
- Worth a Punt. |
| Barcelona v Man Utd |
|
|
| |
|
|
| Under 10.5 Corners @ 5/6 (1.83) |
££ |
|
| Under 3.5 Cards @ 4/5 (1.80) |
££ |
|
| |
|
|
| Lyon v Bayern Munich |
|
|
| |
|
|
| Over 4.5 Cards @ 10/11 (1.91) |
££ |
|
| |
|
|
| Arsenal v Inter Milan |
|
|
| |
|
|
| Over 2.5 Goals @ 8/11 (1.72) |
££ |
|
| |
|
|
| Real Madrid v Ajax |
|
|
| |
|
|
| Real Madrid to beat Ajax @ 4/11 (1.36) |
£££ |
|
| Real Madrid to Win To Nil @ 6/4 (2.50) |
£ |
|
Top Trends...
Here are some other strong trends to look out for in tonight's
matches - including current winning/ losing streaks, in-form Goal
Scorers and Referee's to note...
Arsenal v Inter Milan
Arsenal won all 4 of their home games last season - including a 2-1
victory over champions Barcelona. Inter lost 3 of their 4 away
games, drawing the other.
Barcelona v Man Utd
Lionel Messi scored 12 goals last season - 7 of them at home. He
also scored 2 goals in Barca's opening weekend win against
Villarreal in La Liga.
Real Madrid v Ajax
Cristiano Ronaldo scored 6 goals last season - 4 of them at home.
Ronaldo started this season by scoring a hat-trick against Real
Zaragoza in La Liga.
Porto v Shakhtar Donetsk
Referee Martin Atkinson is in charge tonight. He refereed 3
Champions League games last season all of them went Over 3.5 Cards -
producing card totals of 4, 4 and 8.
Get the latest odds on all of tonight's games here >>
The 100 Club
The idea of the 100 Club is to turn £10 into £100 in as few bets as
possible. Starting with a tenner we roll-up our profit from every
winner into the next bet until we hit the £100 mark. Then we take
out our profit and start again...
Chelsea to beat Valencia @ 3/5 won last week
Here's your next bet (number 2 in the current series):
| Arsenal v Inter Milan - Over 2.5 Goals @ 8/11 |
|
Current roll-up total: £16.00 (wins £27.64)
History: Bet 1 - £10 @ 3/5 = £16.00
Don't forget you can track all your bets LIVE tonight at your
members-only website:
www.ChampionsLeagueBet.co.uk
I'll be back tomorrow with the latest results - and our recommended
bets for the Wednesday night games.
Best wishes,
Champions League Profit Service
www.ChampionsLeagueBet.co.uk |
